Putin’s Botched Mobilization and Nuclear Non-Option

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers, Ukraine War

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s September 21st address to the nation could prove to be one of his most fateful blunders in his disastrous war in Ukraine.

In his 15-minute pre-recorded speech, Putin announced support for the referendums in four Ukrainian regions, declared partial mobilization in Russia, accused the West of aggressive “Russophobia” and threatened to use nuclear weapons. The Russian leader concluded by expressing confidence in the support of Russian citizens (Nezavisimaya gazeta, September 21).

These propositions have proved to be delusions.

Vladimir Putin addressing the nation in September 2022. Photo: kremlin.ru

Read More

The Peace Researcher Is a Deeply Worried Optimist

Posted by & filed under Peace Research, Regions and Powers

Henrik Urdal, Director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), laughs out loud when our journalist points out all the worries that have emerged during their conversation.

Photo: Hedvig Idås, Forsvarets forum

He does indeed believe that many left-wingers can end up supporting Norwegian EU membership. But he fears continued political polarization in the United States, and is worried that populist movements in Europe will be boosted by the energy crisis and other crises. China and Russia are also on his list of concerns.Read More

A Perfect Storm? The Impact of the Ukraine War on Donor Priorities

Posted by and & filed under Humanitarianism, Ukraine War

Two seemingly unrelated global events in September – the devastating floods in Pakistan and the Russian closure of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline – intersect on the issue of funding for humanitarian relief.

The devastating floods in Pakistan is one of the events that impacted funding of humanitarian relief in 2022. Photo: UNICEF

The surge in power prices, the fall in European currencies, and the fears of economic downturn in Europe as a result of collective European support for Ukraine threatens the ability to raise emergency relief funds for future humanitarian crises in the Global South.

Read More

Eurasian Summit of Hidden Tensions and Thin Pretensions

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers, Security, Ukraine War

Samarkand didn’t go well for President Vladimir Putin. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit hosted by Uzbekistan in this ancient city gathered many leaders of various Eurasian states, from Belarus to Mongolia, but it was the meeting with China’s Chairman (the title that Putin addresses him with) Xi Jinping that was of crucial importance for the Russian leader.

With President of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping before the expanded meeting of the SCO Council of Heads of State. Photo TASS / kremlin.ru

Just a week prior, Putin attended the economic forum in Vladivostok and was encouraged by the message from Li Zhanshu, the chairman of the National People’s Congress (Zhanshu is likely to be on his way out) after the XX Congress of Chinese Communist Party next month), who praised the strong dynamics of the China-Russia strategic partnership (Kremlin.ru, September 7). The meeting with Xi Jinping, for which Putin had to come to the hotel reserved for the Chinese delegation, was a visibly sterner affair (Izvestiya, September 15). The readout of opening statements tells that Xi Jinping was concise and noncommittal, while Putin felt obliged to acknowledge Chinese “questions and concerns” regarding the Ukraine crisis (Kremlin.ru, September 15).

What made a difference between these two events was a shocking defeat delivered to the Russian army by the Ukrainian offensive in the Kharkiv region.Read More

Russia and China Ambiguity Alliance in Africa

Posted by and & filed under Regions and Powers, Security, Ukraine War

As the war in Ukraine continues in Europe, a new Cold War dynamic of the East and West tensions and strategic geopolitical alignment between powerful nations have heightened. As global proxy wars intensify, so does the competition over control of Africa’s vast natural resources and strategic trade routes, which is likely to shape Africa’s future geopolitical dynamics.

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping’s long-term goals are to secure and restore their countries as great powers in the 21st century. Here they meet in Samarkand this week. Photo: TASS / kremlin.ru

Africa, the Land of Opportunity

In recent months, it has become clearer that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping’s long-term goals are to secure and restore their countries as great powers in the 21st century. To attain this objective, they aim to implement hybrid strategic alliances in order to maximize their influence, increase their diplomacy, geopolitical, and economic gains globally.

Not surprisingly, Africa has again become a key instrument and playground in this game. A game, in which a transition within the international order from a unipolar system dominated by the USA, to a multipolar or Triangulation structure where both Russia and China are playing strategic roles, is taking place. A key question, therefore, is: how are these two emerging superpowers conquering the African continent to the detriment of Western powers?Read More

Putin Has Unsheathed His Energy Weapon Too Early — and Too Late

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers, Ukraine War

In early September 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin spelled out his intention to punish Europe for resisting Russia’s assault on the world order and supporting Ukraine louder and clearer than ever before.

Location of Nord Stream 1 gas pipelines. Wikimedia Commons

Speaking at the keynote session of an economic forum in Vladivostok, Russia, Putin asserted that the confrontation in Ukraine has reinforced Russia’s sovereignty, so in reality, it stands to gain from deepened global polarization and has suffered no significant losses (Nezavisimaya gazeta, September 7).

He described the proposal to enforce a price cap on oil and gas exported from Russia as “dumb” and threatened to halt all energy supplies if approved by the European Union (Kommersant, September 7).Read More

Putin’s Choices in Ukraine: Retreat, Attrition or Escalation

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers, Ukraine War

The long-promised Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south has not yet delivered any breakthrough, but it still signifies a critical turning point for the war: Russia cannot hope to win by sticking to the pattern of trench warfare and artillery duels.

Some “patriotic” commentators have suggested that the failures of Ukrainian attacks would pave the way for a new Russian offensive toward Mykolaiv and Odesa, but the Kremlin’s high command hardly entertains such strategic fantasies (Svobodnaya pressa, September 3). Russian summer offensive captured Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk through such heavy expenditure of material resources and battalions that little capacity remains for a new push.

Soldiers with the Ukrainian Land Forces. Wikimedia Commons / U.S. Army photo / Adriana M. Diaz-Brown

In contrast, Ukrainian forces have relied more on well-targeted long-distance strikes and exploiting weak points in Russian forces’ porous defenses (Meduza, September 2). Common strategic sense dictates a Russian retreat from the exposed positions to the west of Dnipro River, but political ambitions — undiminished by the exhaustion of military might — demand holding Kherson at any cost.

Read More

The Ukraine Crisis and Its Impact on Africa’s Geopolitics: What Do We Know So Far?

Posted by and & filed under Regions and Powers, Ukraine War

On February 24, the world witnessed the full-fledged invasion of Ukraine led by the Russian President Vladimir Putin and his forces. Described as one of the most aggressive military acts seen in Europe since World War II, the military invasion of Ukraine has had far more geopolitical consequences than expected. Though it is too early to know how this war will end, it is clear that we are now at a significant crossroads in international politics.

Photo: UN Food and Agriculture Organization / Issouf Sanogo

As the war continues in Europe, many political leaders in Africa are wondering what the long-term geopolitical implications of this crisis will be on Africa, both in terms of the region’s future security and future political development.Read More

Norway and the Geopolitics of Battery Minerals

Posted by & filed under Energy Transitions and Conflict

Batteries are as essential to the “green” energy transition as wind parks, solar power, and electric cars. These green energy technologies all require vast amounts of minerals.

Illustration of planned factorty in Arendal, Norway: Morrow Batteries

Norway has the potential to be an important new supplier of batteries, but it has been surprisingly silent on the issue – until now.

Read More

A Painful Dialogue with the Taliban

Posted by and & filed under Regions and Powers

A year has passed since the Taliban took control of Afghanistan.

The number of lives lost due to war has fallen drastically. But the Taliban’s dismantling of democracy, their gross breaches of human rights, their exclusion of women from education and work, and their hosting of al-Qaeda and other terror networks, give few grounds for optimism.

How should Norway and the rest of the world respond to the Taliban regime?

Those who have the most to lose from a Western policy of isolation are Afghanistan’s 40 million citizens. Photo: Jan Chipchase. CC BY-SA 3.0

Many had hoped that the 2021 version of the Taliban would impose less oppressive policies than they did when they last held power in Afghanistan, from 1996 to 2001.

Read More