No Sensible End-Game for Russia in the Badly Mismanaged War

Posted by & filed under Security, Ukraine War

Predictions of a decisive offensive in Donbass and speculations about peace talks have gained new intensity in both Russian propaganda and Western commentary last week – and neither makes much sense.

Artillery and air strikes on the solid Ukrainian defense lines in several key directions on the battle for Donbass have escalated, but Russian battalions, exhausted by two months of unexpectedly hard fighting (and two moths of winter camping prior to invasion) are unable to gain any ground.

Borodyanka, Ukraine, Tuesday, April 5, 2022. AP Photo/Vadim Ghirda/Flickr/CC BY-2.0

The visit to Moscow and Kyiv scheduled by UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres for this week (after both countries celebrated Orthodox Easter) is well-intended but most probably fruitless, as President Volodymyr Zelensky can only confirm his readiness to meet with President Vladimir Putin and the latter will blame Ukraine for sabotaging negotiations and reiterate the message given to Charles Michel, President of the European Council (RIA-Novosti, April 22).Read More

Failure Looms Over Russia’s Decisive Offensive in Donbas

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers, Ukraine War

Triumphalist rhetoric coming out of Moscow notwithstanding, Russia’s war in Ukraine is not progressing according to plan (see EDM, April 11).

Nevertheless, President Vladimir Putin repeated yet again last week (April 12) that the central objective of the massive re-invasion of Ukrainian territory starting on February 24 purportedly was always limited to seizing the whole of the Donbas region (Kommersant, April 12).

A Ukrainian soldier walks past a Russian vehicle destroyed in a fire fight. Photo: Ivor Prickett for The New York Times / Flickr / CC BY-2.0

It took plenty of careful persuasion from the top brass to impress upon him three weeks ago that Russia’s thrice-revised original plan to capture Kyiv — by a swift attack, or a forceful breakthrough, or a long siege — could not be implemented. And notably, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has not made a single public statement or international contact since this retreat.

The allegedly newly appointed commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, Army General Aleksandr Dvornikov (Russian sources remain mum about his promotion), is presumably responsible for executing a decisive offensive in Donbas. But this latest push could well also turn out to be mission impossible (Meduza, April 13; see EDM, April 13).Read More

Putin Is Staking His Political Future on Victory in Ukraine – and Has Little Incentive to Make Peace

Posted by & filed under Security, Ukraine War

Despite stop-and-start peace talks, a resolution to the brutal war in Ukraine appears distant.

Putin celebrating the anniversary of Crimea’s reunification with Russia. Moscow, March 2022.
Photo: The Russian Presidential Press and Information Office

Major cities in Ukraine are faltering. Civilians, including children, are dying of shrapnel and glass wounds, exposure and thirst.

At the same time, Ukraine’s resilience and a coordinated global response means the war is not ending as many expected before it began – with Russia’s swift victory.Read More

Russia’s Quick Victory Vanishes, as Protracted War Looks Inevitable

Posted by & filed under Security, Ukraine War

Russia has revised its war plan multiple times during the, so far, seven-week-long, ill-conceived large-scale invasion of Ukraine, yet it still remains incompatible with both tactical imperatives and political ambitions.

Ukrainian soldiers inspecting the charred remains of a Russian military convoy in Bucha. Photo: Daniel Berehulak /NYT/Flickr/CC BY-2.0

The consecutive revisions themselves have been flawed in different ways: if the initial “Blitzkrieg” design was based on the assumption that the Ukrainian military would disintegrate, the follow-up proposition for laying siege to Kyiv presumed that the government would capitulate, while the order to execute a breakthrough toward Odesa mistakenly took for granted that Ukraine’s most important seaport had been left undefended.Read More

Different Responses to Mobility at Europe’s Borders

Posted by and & filed under Law and Ethics, Migration, Ukraine War

In the weeks since Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine significant proportions of Ukraine’s population has gone on the move, the majority of whom are internally displaced.

By 29th March 2022, 4 million people had fled Ukraine across borders to neighbouring countries: Poland (2 million in 3 weeks), Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Moldova (some reportedly to Russia).

Ukrainian refugees from 2022, crossing into Poland. Photo: mvs.gov.ua via Wikimedia Commons / CC BY 4.0

In this blog post, we aim to contribute to the ongoing comparative reflections on the European Union’s response to sudden and large-scale arrivals of people across its borders, in 2015 and now.Read More

Why Widespread Sexual Violence Is Likely in Ukraine

Posted by & filed under Conflict Patterns, Gender, Ukraine War

Sexual violence has not received much attention in the coverage of the war in Ukraine. However, reports of cases of sexual violence by Russian or pro-Russian soldiers are just starting to appear.

Photo: IStock

Some human rights organizations in Ukraine have already warned about this risk. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba recently claimed that Russian soldiers have committed rapes. Norway’s representative Mona Juul recently issued a warning about sexual violence in Ukraine in the UN Security Council. As a researcher on wartime sexual violence, this warning is merited.Read More

A Pope’s Dilemma

Posted by and & filed under Religion, Ukraine War

Pope Francis has condemned the war in Ukraine in strong words.

Pope Francis with a flag from Bucha. Photo: the Vatican

He dismisses the assertion of Putin’s propaganda that it merely involves “military operations,” and instead condemns it as a war that causes “death, destruction, and distress.”

But as head of the Catholic church and its diplomatic arm the “Holy See,” he has not confronted Putin directly. Francis has avoided mentioning “Putin” or “Russia” in his speeches.

Why does the Pope not go further, condemning the invasion and affirming Ukraine’s right to armed self-defense?

Read More

Putin’s First Assertive Move On the Energy Front Goes Astray

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers, Ukraine War

Combat operations on all key fronts of the Ukraine war continue non-stop, even if without decisive action, but the transit of Russian natural gas to Europe through the Ukrainian pipeline system continues without interruptions.

Gas pipes in Sambirs’kyi district, Lviv Oblast, Ukraine. Photo: Solomka / Wikimedia Commons

This may appear aberrant given President Vladimir Putin’s well-documented propensity for “weaponizing” energy exports against European customers, most crudely during the three weeks long “gas war” with Ukraine at the start of 2009.Read More

A Popular Uprising Can Oust Putin

Posted by , , and & filed under Governance, Ukraine War

Putin’s place at the long table in the Kremlin is more insecure than ever, and even though he will cling to power, it is not inevitable that he will succeed.

Large-scale protests following Putin’s re-election. Moscow rally in 2011. Photo: Bogomolov.PL / Wikimedia Commons / CC 3.0

Fears that the so-called colour revolutions will spread to Russia have dogged Putin’s time in power.

Colour revolutions in two of Russia’s neighbours, Georgia and Ukraine, forced autocratic leaders out of power and an attempted colour revolution in Belarus came close to overthrowing Lukashenko after the country’s 2020 elections.

So far, the large-scale protests that followed Putin’s questionable re-election to the presidency in 2011–2012 are the closest that Russia has come to such a revolution. But could the war trigger a new popular movement capable of overturning the regime? Research into protest movements and regime change can provide us with some pointers.Read More

Do Men Really Publish More than Women?

Posted by , and & filed under Gender, Research Politics

Academic publishing, which has long been the stick by which academics measure their prowess, has been repeatedly shown to be yet another arena in which men consistently outperform women. Women produce fewer articles, collaborate less, and are cited less than their male colleagues.

This is an established truth. Or is it?

Photo: Desky

In a project funded by the Research Council of Norway, we analyzed the publication practices of men and women in the Norwegian higher education sector. Norway systematically collects far more detailed publication data than most other countries, providing us a rich dataset to examine publications and author characteristics.Read More