The post-Soviet transformation took Russia from a fledgling democracy to a corrupt autocracy, but, since the start of the war against Ukraine, the Kremlin has taken a new turn, which amounts to a resolute top-down effort at reversing what progress has been achieved in modernizing the state system, economy and society. This experiment is unique… Read more »
Author: Pavel Baev
How Can Russia Be Defeated but Not Humiliated
The problem of humiliating Russia too deeply, by ensuring its defeat in the war against Ukraine, is more serious than just an unfortunate turn of phrase by French President Emmanuel Macron. Last Thursday, Macron traveled to Kyiv together with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, and Romanian President Klaus Iohannis, and delivered… Read more »
Russian Elites Demonstrate Loyalty to Putin, but Are Preparing for Unruly Succession
The full-scale re-invasion of Ukraine, ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin on February 24, came as a shock for many groups within the Russian elite. They are still assessing the consequences of that autocratic decision and adapting to the fast-deteriorating political and economic environment. Meanwhile, Putin persists with rigidly confronting the West and apparently expects… Read more »
At the 100-Day Mark, Russian Offensive Crawls toward Eventual Defeat
Modern wars are decided, according to Russian military strategy, in the high-intensity initial period, and the multi-pronged offensive into Ukraine was indeed launched with the aim of achieving a decisive success in the first couple of weeks. As the war crossed the symbolic 100-day watershed last weekend, nothing resembling a victory was discernible on Russia’s… Read more »
The Closure at Azovstal Steels Ukraine’s Resolve to Keep Fighting
In the seemingly deadlocked, but in fact fast-evolving, war in Ukraine, two impactful events coincided last week, altering the course of battles and political stand-offs. The first one was the end of the heroic defense of Mariupol, as the last defenders of the Azovstal steel plant came out of their underground fortress. The second one… Read more »
Could Annexation Be Putin’s Response to NATO Enlargement?
Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has energized the North Atlantic Alliance in every possible way, reviving its purpose and unity, and granting it new attractiveness in Europe and greater prominence in the Indo-Pacific. The prospect of Finland and Sweden joining the 30 member-states was hypothetical last autumn, when Moscow issued the ultimatum demanding that NATO curtail… Read more »
On the Big Occasion of May 9, Putin Had Nothing to Say
It stood to every political and strategic reason that President Vladimir Putin would announce a major decision opening the Victory Day military parade at the Red Square. Over the years, he has altered the meaning of this holiday from celebrating the allied triumph in the struggle against Nazi Germany to celebrating the might of Russian… Read more »
Escalation of Lies and Threats Leaves Putin with Two Bad Choices
The deadlocked war has delivered Russia to an impossible situation where it can neither reckon with reality nor keep denying it. The official discourse on and the societal response to the unfolding disaster have so far contained a peculiar mix of patriotic mobilization and pretense that normal life continues undisturbed. The intensity of official propaganda… Read more »
No Sensible End-Game for Russia in the Badly Mismanaged War
Predictions of a decisive offensive in Donbass and speculations about peace talks have gained new intensity in both Russian propaganda and Western commentary last week – and neither makes much sense. Artillery and air strikes on the solid Ukrainian defense lines in several key directions on the battle for Donbass have escalated, but Russian battalions,… Read more »
Failure Looms Over Russia’s Decisive Offensive in Donbas
Triumphalist rhetoric coming out of Moscow notwithstanding, Russia’s war in Ukraine is not progressing according to plan (see EDM, April 11). Nevertheless, President Vladimir Putin repeated yet again last week (April 12) that the central objective of the massive re-invasion of Ukrainian territory starting on February 24 purportedly was always limited to seizing the whole of… Read more »