The predictable and yet shockingly brutal Russian invasion into Ukraine on 24 February 2022 has in the course of three weeks sent many tremors across the world system. Major stock markets experience strong corrections, oil prices register new highs, importers of wheat and sunflower oil are nervously checking their stocks, but one place that hasn’t… Read more »
Author: Pavel Baev
Putin Keeps Losing All the Wars He Has Started
The word “war” is presently banned in the official Russian discourse on Ukraine, but in fact the “special military operation” launched on President Vladimir Putin’s order early morning February 24, includes several wars fought in different domains. The massive invasion into Ukraine constitutes the most kinetic of them, but on the highest level Putin imagines… Read more »
Putin’s War Is Stuck, Beware the Rising Risks
Data on the concentration of Russian troops was solid; the diplomatic offensive executed by Moscow was deliberately disagreeable; yet, many experts (myself including) refused to accept the proposition on the coming war as “inevitable”. Denials streaming from the Kremlin were never convincing, but President Vladimir Putin’s reputation as a shrewd pragmatist still clashed with the… Read more »
No Way around a Dangerous Confrontation with Putin’s Russia
I, along with many other commentators, believed until the very end that war in Ukraine was preventable and would ultimately not take place. Very sadly, and concerningly, I was wrong. Why did I hold out hope so long for the avoidance of war? What does the invasion of Ukraine tell us about Putin’s regime? And… Read more »
Putin’s Blackmail-War in Ukraine Continues Under Diplomatic Cover
The guns have so far remained silent on the snow-covered Russian-Ukrainian border, but there is certainly no peace there; a rather unusual war is in progress. It is unlike any other wars waged by Russia under the lengthy rule of President Vladimir Putin, who began his first presidential term with a war in Chechnya that… Read more »
What Difference the Nobel Peace Price Makes – or Doesn’t
The decision of the Norwegian Nobel committee to award the 2021 Nobel Peace Prize to Dmitry Muratov (together with courageous Philippine journalist Maria Ressa) announced last Friday astonished, angered or elated everybody in Russia who has even a slight interest in politics or minimal exposure to media. Muratov himself was astounded (and even discarded the… Read more »
Russia Readying for Compromise on the UN Humanitarian Aid to Syria
The UN Security Council is due to make a decision on a particular and particularly controversial issue pertaining to the humanitarian disaster in Syria by July 10, and Russia positions itself as the key part of the problem and a necessary contributor to a solution. The discord in the UN Security Council (SC) on the… Read more »
The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Geopolitics of the non-ceasefire
In a series of brief blog posts, researchers of the PRIO Middle East Centre offer their reflections on the unfolding Israeli-Palestinian Conflict. The proposition for cessation of violence in the suddenly exploded Israeli-Palestinian conflict appears so natural and necessary that the lack of any progress in its advancement after ten days of rocket salvoes and… Read more »
What a Biden Presidency Could Mean for the Middle East
With a winner finally announced in the US election, researchers at the PRIO Middle East Centre present a few thoughts on what a Biden presidency could mean for the Middle East. What are likely to be the guiding foreign policy principles of a Biden administration and how will regional and international actors’ positions be impacted?… Read more »
Is there a hope for peace in the new/old war in the Caucasus?
A full-blown war erupted in the South Caucasus last Sunday, September 27, and the two belligerents – Armenia and Azerbaijan – are proceeding with mobilizations under martial law, but no international authority tries in earnest to stop the hostilities.